Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints30
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound118–120
- Q41.1Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.118–120
- Q41.1Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Dennis Schroder118–120
- Q41.1Neemias Queta enters the game for Sam Hauser118–120
- Q41.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Derrick White118–120
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam misses free throw 2 of 2118–120
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2118–120
- Q41.1Derrick White personal foul117–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:21Derrick White makes 25-foot step back jumpshotTOR 109 – 110 BOS · BOS 38% → 62% +23BOS 38% → 62%+23 pts
- Q42:38Jalen McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 113 – 110 BOS · TOR 46% → 72% +25TOR 46% → 72%+25 pts
- Q41:04Derrick White makes driving layupTOR 113 – 116 BOS · BOS 66% → 87% +21BOS 66% → 87%+21 pts
- Q447.1Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (O.G. Anunoby assists)TOR 116 – 116 BOS · TOR 10% → 48% +38TOR 10% → 48%+38 pts
- Q432.1Luke Kornet makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jaylen Brown assists)TOR 116 – 118 BOS · BOS 52% → 85% +33BOS 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Fair odds
- BOS -183
- TOR +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.4 – 118.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +38 | +38 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +206 Elo | BOS 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.1 | Points scored | 120.36th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | +10.02nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 119.23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 15–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+38 Elo- Jayson Tatum left ankle sprain - injury management−43 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.