Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints30
- Kris DunnAssists13
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints32
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–119
- Q411.0Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)126–119
- Q419.2Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2126–116
- Q419.2Walker Kessler enters the game for Simone Fontecchio125–116
- Q419.2Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2125–116
- Q419.2Scottie Barnes personal foul124–116
- Q421.1Collin Sexton enters the game for Ochai Agbaji124–116
- Q421.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Walker Kessler124–116
- Q421.1Jazz Full timeout124–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:46Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 95 – 98 TOR · UTAH 25% → 37% +12UTAH 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q49:04Chris Boucher makes 23-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)UTAH 95 – 101 TOR · TOR 64% → 76% +12TOR 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q48:40Kris Dunn makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 98 – 101 TOR · UTAH 23% → 36% +13UTAH 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q45:31Lauri Markkanen makes 11-foot two point shotUTAH 108 – 106 TOR · UTAH 50% → 62% +12UTAH 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q44:35Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 113 – 106 TOR · UTAH 75% → 88% +13UTAH 75% → 88%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- UTAH 49%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -103
- TOR +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 115.5 – 115.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +25 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.6 | Points scored | 112.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 114.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −2.223rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 111.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 8–822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.