Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q42.1shot clock turnover111–121
- Q426.1Jalen McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)111–121
- Q426.1Malachi Flynn offensive rebound108–121
- Q428.0Precious Achiuwa misses driving dunk108–121
- Q430.1Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound108–121
- Q434.1Malachi Flynn misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–121
- Q440.0Furkan Korkmaz enters the game for Tobias Harris108–121
- Q440.0Javonte Smart enters the game for Danuel House Jr.108–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q120.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Malachi Flynn assists)TOR 37 – 26 PHI · TOR 43% → 50% +7TOR 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q28:48Otto Porter Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (O.G. Anunoby assists)TOR 40 – 35 PHI · TOR 31% → 38% +7TOR 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q25:03Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)TOR 50 – 46 PHI · PHI 55% → 63% +8PHI 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:41Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)TOR 54 – 54 PHI · PHI 64% → 72% +7PHI 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q359.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumperTOR 87 – 92 PHI · TOR 12% → 18% +7TOR 12% → 18%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -10.5
- PHI 84%
- Fair odds
- PHI -351
- TOR +351 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.6 – 120.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +151 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +293 Elo | PHI 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 122.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 111.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.9 | Margin | +11.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 108.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 11–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+151 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.