Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- OG AnunobyPoints26
- Pascal SiakamAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints14
- Kyle KuzmaAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–102
- Q40.0shot clock turnover132–102
- Q424.0Eugene Omoruyi out of bounds lost ball turnover132–102
- Q437.0Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound132–102
- Q438.1Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 2132–102
- Q438.1Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 1 of 2132–102
- Q438.1Eugene Omoruyi shooting foul131–102
- Q449.1Eugene Omoruyi makes driving dunk131–102
- Q453.1Precious Achiuwa lost ball turnover (Eugene Omoruyi steals)131–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:31Tyus Jones makes 27-foot step back jumpshotTOR 8 – 13 WSH · WSH 45% → 51% +6WSH 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q14:49Deni Avdija makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)TOR 16 – 24 WSH · WSH 52% → 59% +7WSH 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q14:03Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 19 – 24 WSH · TOR 41% → 48% +7TOR 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q13:32Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 22 – 24 WSH · TOR 48% → 55% +7TOR 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q27:24O.G. Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 40 – 35 WSH · TOR 63% → 70% +7TOR 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 120.9 – 117.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −27 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +69 Elo | TOR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.4 | Points scored | 117.110th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 126.630th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.4 | Margin | −9.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 110.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 119.730th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.0 | Pace | 105.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 2–927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.