Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints28
- Franz WagnerAssists9
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints30
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–119
- Q41.1Franz Wagner defensive rebound127–119
- Q44.0Daniel Gafford misses two point shot127–119
- Q45.0Daniel Gafford offensive rebound127–119
- Q48.1Corey Kispert misses three point shot127–119
- Q413.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Kyle Kuzma127–119
- Q413.1Wizards Full timeout127–119
- Q413.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound127–119
- Q413.1Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2127–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:11Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 65 – 63 WSH · WSH 29% → 37% +8WSH 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q38:24Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 73 – 65 WSH · ORL 72% → 79% +7ORL 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q37:01Anthony Black makes 24-foot three pointerORL 78 – 69 WSH · ORL 75% → 82% +7ORL 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q329.0Franz Wagner makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 96 – 88 WSH · ORL 74% → 83% +9ORL 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q41:42Franz Wagner makes 6-foot two point shotORL 121 – 115 WSH · ORL 88% → 96% +8ORL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 65%
- Fair odds
- ORL -155
- WSH +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 119.1 – 115.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −22 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +110 Elo | ORL 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.010th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 126.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.8 | Margin | −9.527th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 110.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 119.830th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 2–827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.