Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jrue HolidayRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–128
- OT0.0Pistons offensive team rebound122–128
- OT1.1Bojan Bogdanovic misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–128
- OT4.2Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2122–128
- OT4.2Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2122–127
- OT4.2Bojan Bogdanovic personal take foul122–126
- OT6.1Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three pointer122–126
- OT15.0Jalen Duren defensive rebound119–126
- OT15.0Jrue Holiday misses free throw 2 of 2119–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:02Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 106 – 106 BOS · DET 11% → 44% +33DET 11% → 44%+33 pts
- Q48.1Jayson Tatum makes driving layupDET 106 – 108 BOS · BOS 52% → 98% +46BOS 52% → 98%+46 pts
- Q44.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes tip shotDET 108 – 108 BOS · DET <1% → 48% +48DET <1% → 48%+48 pts
- OT2:32Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)DET 115 – 113 BOS · DET 32% → 59% +26DET 32% → 59%+26 pts
- OT1:46Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)DET 115 – 119 BOS · BOS 68% → 90% +22BOS 68% → 90%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -16
- BOS 93%
- Fair odds
- BOS -548
- DET +548 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.8 – 122.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +93 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | BOS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +450 Elo | BOS 93.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 83.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 120.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.5 | Margin | +10.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.4 | Offense rating | 119.33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 109.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.626th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–14 | Road vs home | 14–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.