Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints24
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints41
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–112
- Q44.1Alec Burks out of bounds bad pass turnover118–112
- Q45.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound118–112
- Q47.1Mikal Bridges misses free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q47.1Nic Claxton enters the game for Royce O'Neale118–112
- Q47.1Nets offensive team rebound118–112
- Q47.1Mikal Bridges misses free throw 1 of 2118–112
- Q47.1Isaiah Stewart personal take foul118–112
- Q412.0Royce O'Neale enters the game for Nic Claxton118–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:40Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)BKN 92 – 94 DET · DET 38% → 53% +14DET 38% → 53%+14 pts
- Q48:10Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)BKN 92 – 97 DET · DET 53% → 68% +14DET 53% → 68%+14 pts
- Q41:40Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 112 – 106 DET · BKN 82% → 96% +14BKN 82% → 96%+14 pts
- Q457.2Cade Cunningham makes driving layupBKN 112 – 110 DET · DET 6% → 21% +15DET 6% → 21%+15 pts
- Q438.1Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 115 – 110 DET · BKN 83% → 99% +16BKN 83% → 99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -6.5
- BKN 74%
- Fair odds
- BKN -195
- DET +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 118.5 – 113.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1335 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −38 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +180 Elo | BKN 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 109.228th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 120.926th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −11.729th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 106.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 117.826th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 1–1330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.