Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints23
- Jaden IveyAssists7
- Bojan BogdanovicRebounds8
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints29
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–126
- Q414.1shot clock turnover115–126
- Q438.1Kevin Knox II makes 1-foot dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)115–126
- Q438.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound113–126
- Q442.0Dennis Smith Jr. misses driving floating jump shot113–126
- Q41:06Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three pointer113–126
- Q41:14Dennis Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2110–126
- Q41:14Marcus Sasser enters the game for Cade Cunningham110–125
- Q41:14Nets offensive team rebound110–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)DET 6 – 0 BKN · DET 36% → 42% +6DET 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q17:56Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)DET 9 – 10 BKN · BKN 65% → 71% +6BKN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q37:24Isaiah Stewart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)DET 73 – 77 BKN · DET 18% → 25% +7DET 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:33Spencer Dinwiddie makes 26-foot three point shot (Mikal Bridges assists)DET 75 – 84 BKN · BKN 80% → 86% +6BKN 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q32:33Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three pointer (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)DET 82 – 91 BKN · BKN 80% → 87% +7BKN 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -7.5
- BKN 77%
- Fair odds
- BKN -233
- DET +233 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.3 – 118.7 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | +19 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +208 Elo | BKN 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 115.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.8 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 114.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 114.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 8–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.