Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Killian HayesAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists5
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–113
- Q42.0(00:02.1) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–113
- Q42.0Dario Saric enters the game for Trayce Jackson-Davis109–113
- Q42.0Warriors Full timeout109–113
- Q42.0Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive goaltending violation109–113
- Q42.0Cade Cunningham makes driving layup109–113
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2107–113
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2107–112
- Q46.1Kevin Knox II enters the game for Jaden Ivey107–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:36Brandin Podziemski makes 7-foot two point shotDET 94 – 97 GS · GS 64% → 77% +13GS 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q42:58Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)DET 96 – 100 GS · GS 64% → 84% +20GS 64% → 84%+20 pts
- Q42:10Cade Cunningham makes two point shotDET 100 – 100 GS · DET 27% → 45% +18DET 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q41:41Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)DET 103 – 102 GS · DET 25% → 57% +31DET 25% → 57%+31 pts
- Q41:05Stephen Curry makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDET 103 – 107 GS · GS 67% → 93% +26GS 67% → 93%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -8.5
- GS 80%
- Fair odds
- GS -250
- DET +250 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.4 – 124.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1331 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −32 | +29 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +240 Elo | GS 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 117.29th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +0.518th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 114.912th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–17 | Road vs home | 10–921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.