Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints26
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints13
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–102
- Q414.1Trayce Jackson-Davis makes tip shot114–102
- Q415.1Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound114–100
- Q417.0Jerome Robinson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot114–100
- Q421.1Cole Swider makes layup (Nikola Jovic assists)114–100
- Q430.1Moses Moody makes free throw 1 of 1112–100
- Q430.1R.J. Hampton shooting foul112–99
- Q430.1Moses Moody makes driving layup112–99
- Q439.1shot clock turnover112–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q148.1Dario Saric makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 22 – 25 GS · GS 49% → 57% +7GS 49% → 57%+7 pts
- Q210:29Jamal Cain makes 22-foot three point jumperMIA 29 – 30 GS · MIA 41% → 48% +7MIA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q25:46Kevin Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 41 – 34 GS · MIA 61% → 68% +7MIA 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q37:01Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)MIA 71 – 66 GS · GS 25% → 34% +9GS 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q36:01Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 78 – 68 GS · MIA 73% → 81% +8MIA 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -103
- GS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.3 – 116.1 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | +39 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +5 Elo | GS 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 117.19th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 115.919th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 114.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 9–614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.