Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints27
- Tobias HarrisAssists6
- Tobias HarrisRebounds7
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points31
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–119
- Q44.0De'Anthony Melton makes two point shot113–119
- Q45.0De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound111–119
- Q48.1Tobias Harris misses 26-foot three point jumper111–119
- Q413.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q413.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q413.1Tobias Harris personal take foul111–117
- Q418.1Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot111–117
- Q422.0Tyler Herro bad pass (De'Anthony Melton steals)108–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:01Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumperPHI 96 – 98 MIA · PHI 24% → 38% +14PHI 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q46:13Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 99 – 99 MIA · PHI 32% → 48% +17PHI 32% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:55Kyle Lowry makes 14-foot pullup jump shotPHI 99 – 101 MIA · MIA 51% → 63% +12MIA 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q43:32Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)PHI 101 – 108 MIA · MIA 79% → 92% +13MIA 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q43:12Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)PHI 104 – 108 MIA · PHI 7% → 20% +13PHI 7% → 20%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- MIA 48%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.2 – 115.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +54 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.3 | Points scored | 113.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 111.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +1.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 114.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–4 | Road vs home | 8–616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.