Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints36
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q42.1Paolo Banchero bad pass (Brandin Podziemski steals)115–121
- Q44.1Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2115–121
- Q44.1Warriors offensive team rebound115–120
- Q44.1Brandin Podziemski misses free throw 1 of 2115–120
- Q44.1Moritz Wagner personal take foul115–120
- Q45.1Paolo Banchero makes tip shot115–120
- Q46.0Paolo Banchero offensive rebound113–120
- Q46.1Paolo Banchero misses alley oop layup113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:25Cole Anthony makes 28-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 89 – 89 GS · ORL 35% → 48% +13ORL 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q48:17Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)ORL 93 – 95 GS · GS 47% → 62% +15GS 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q45:07Paolo Banchero makes 8-foot two point shotORL 97 – 99 GS · ORL 25% → 36% +11ORL 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q44:47Stephen Curry makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)ORL 97 – 101 GS · GS 64% → 76% +11GS 64% → 76%+11 pts
- Q44:27Stephen Curry makes 25-foot step back jumpshotORL 97 – 104 GS · GS 76% → 89% +13GS 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -118
- ORL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.1 – 115.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +18 | ORL: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +32 Elo | GS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.8 | Points scored | 116.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 116.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 9–819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.