Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints28
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists5
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q49.0Franz Wagner makes two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)107–112
- Q411.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound105–112
- Q414.1Jusuf Nurkic misses 24-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q433.1Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound105–112
- Q436.1Franz Wagner misses driving layup105–112
- Q444.2Franz Wagner defensive rebound105–112
- Q447.1Jusuf Nurkic misses 25-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q41:10Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:04Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 85 – 87 PHX · ORL 28% → 38% +11ORL 28% → 38%+11 pts
- Q49:26Gary Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 96 – 95 PHX · ORL 38% → 51% +14ORL 38% → 51%+14 pts
- Q47:55Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)ORL 99 – 99 PHX · ORL 32% → 47% +15ORL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q46:05Paolo Banchero makes driving layupORL 101 – 103 PHX · ORL 26% → 36% +10ORL 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q45:54Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)ORL 102 – 106 PHX · PHX 58% → 75% +16PHX 58% → 75%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 55%
- Fair odds
- PHX -134
- ORL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.1 – 114.4 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +69 | ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +36 Elo | PHX 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.514th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 114.616th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 114.713th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 8–922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+8 Elo- Jonathan Isaac right hamstring strain−3 Elo
Suns
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.