Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints23
- Paul ReedAssists3
- Paul ReedRebounds10
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–92
- Q43.0Jett Howard makes 24-foot step back jumpshot112–92
- Q414.0Anthony Black defensive rebound112–89
- Q417.0Kelly Oubre Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper112–89
- Q430.0Paul Reed defensive rebound112–89
- Q433.1Chuma Okeke misses 24-foot three point shot112–89
- Q437.1Jaden Springer bad pass (Trevelin Queen steals)112–89
- Q457.1Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound112–89
- Q41:00Trevelin Queen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot112–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q335.1Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPHI 82 – 73 ORL · PHI 74% → 83% +9PHI 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q410:16Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caleb Houstan assists)PHI 86 – 80 ORL · ORL 15% → 24% +9ORL 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q49:37Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)PHI 86 – 83 ORL · ORL 23% → 35% +12ORL 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q49:18Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)PHI 89 – 83 ORL · PHI 65% → 77% +12PHI 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q48:37De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPHI 92 – 83 ORL · PHI 78% → 87% +9PHI 78% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- ORL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.7 – 113.9 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +29 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.0 | Points scored | 113.618th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.7 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 108.73rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 11–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.