New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints38
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds12
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints32
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–117
- Q47.0Immanuel Quickley lost ball turnover (Anthony Black steals)108–117
- Q414.1Jalen Suggs makes 3-foot dunk (Franz Wagner assists)108–117
- Q418.0Paolo Banchero defensive rebound108–115
- Q422.0Jalen Brunson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–115
- Q426.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2108–115
- Q426.1Anthony Black enters the game for Cole Anthony108–114
- Q426.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2108–114
- Q426.1Josh Hart personal take foul108–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:32Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot two point shotNY 10 – 14 ORL · NY 32% → 38% +6NY 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q140.0Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotNY 27 – 26 ORL · NY 43% → 50% +7NY 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q29:47Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chuma Okeke assists)NY 31 – 33 ORL · ORL 50% → 58% +7ORL 50% → 58%+7 pts
- Q25:46Paolo Banchero makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)NY 33 – 40 ORL · ORL 63% → 70% +7ORL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q43:54Julius Randle makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 97 – 103 ORL · NY 7% → 13% +6NY 7% → 13%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ORL 49%
- Fair odds
- ORL -113
- NY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.7 – 113.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +24 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +4 Elo | NY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 112.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.