Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–122
- Q411.1Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound132–122
- Q417.1Jonathan Kuminga misses 24-foot three point jumper132–122
- Q420.1Jonathan Kuminga offensive rebound132–122
- Q423.1Stephen Curry misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot132–122
- Q429.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2132–122
- Q429.2Mavericks offensive team rebound131–122
- Q429.2Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2131–122
- Q429.2Andrew Wiggins personal take foul131–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:54Stephen Curry makes 23-foot step back jumpshotDAL 49 – 43 GS · GS 30% → 37% +7GS 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q33:48Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)DAL 90 – 82 GS · GS 17% → 25% +8GS 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q33:28Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)DAL 93 – 82 GS · DAL 75% → 83% +8DAL 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q46:01Jonathan Kuminga makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)DAL 112 – 106 GS · GS 10% → 20% +10GS 10% → 20%+10 pts
- Q42:47Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point shot (Stephen Curry assists)DAL 119 – 114 GS · GS 4% → 15% +10GS 4% → 15%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 59%
- Fair odds
- GS -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.5 – 120.8 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +28 | DAL: Missing Kyrie Irving −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +63 Elo | GS 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 115.819th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.216th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 9–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+37 Elo- Kyrie Irving right heel bruise−16 Elo
Warriors
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.