Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints29
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds23
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–110
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound113–110
- Q40.0Max Strus blocks Seth Curry 's 26-foot three point shot113–110
- Q48.1Dean Wade enters the game for Georges Niang113–110
- Q48.1Luka Doncic enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.113–110
- Q48.1Seth Curry enters the game for Josh Green113–110
- Q48.1Mavericks Full timeout113–110
- Q48.1Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound113–110
- Q410.2Georges Niang misses free throw 2 of 2113–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:40Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 85 – 90 DAL · CLE 16% → 25% +9CLE 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q410:28Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)CLE 87 – 93 DAL · DAL 68% → 79% +11DAL 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q44:36Max Strus makes two point shotCLE 102 – 105 DAL · CLE 18% → 28% +10CLE 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q42:03Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 107 – 105 DAL · CLE 38% → 67% +29CLE 38% → 67%+29 pts
- Q41:39Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 108 – 105 DAL · CLE 70% → 79% +9CLE 70% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 57%
- Fair odds
- DAL -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.2 – 118.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +43 | CLE: Missing Sam Merrill −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +47 Elo | DAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 119.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 117.821st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−22 Elo- Sam Merrill right wrist sprain−3 Elo
Mavericks
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.