Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints26
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds17
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–95
- Q421.0shot clock turnover109–95
- Q445.0Dalen Terry enters the game for DeMar DeRozan109–95
- Q445.0Coby White discontinue dribble turnover109–95
- Q448.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–95
- Q449.1Craig Porter misses driving floating jump shot109–95
- Q41:04Craig Porter defensive rebound109–95
- Q41:07Patrick Williams misses 17-foot pullup jump shot109–95
- Q41:21Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:31Damian Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 45 – 39 CHI · CLE 45% → 53% +8CLE 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q38:29Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CLE 65 – 63 CHI · CHI 45% → 54% +10CHI 45% → 54%+10 pts
- Q31:44Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Jones assists)CLE 78 – 70 CHI · CLE 61% → 71% +11CLE 61% → 71%+11 pts
- Q47:10Patrick Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CLE 90 – 85 CHI · CHI 18% → 30% +12CHI 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q46:50Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 93 – 85 CHI · CLE 70% → 83% +12CLE 70% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 67%
- Fair odds
- CHI -192
- CLE +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.5 – 114.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +56 | CLE: Missing Sam Merrill −5, Caris LeVert −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +124 Elo | CHI 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 110.525th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.022nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 111.718th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.7 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−37 Elo- Sam Merrill sprained right wrist−5 Elo
- Caris LeVert left knee tendinitis−4 Elo
Bulls
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.