Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points32
- Dwight PowellAssists6
- Dwight PowellRebounds14
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–118
- Q410.2Dwight Powell defensive rebound110–118
- Q414.1Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot step back jumpshot110–118
- Q430.0Anthony Edwards defensive rebound110–118
- Q431.2Dwight Powell misses dunk110–118
- Q431.2Dwight Powell offensive rebound110–118
- Q436.2Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper110–118
- Q438.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.110–118
- Q438.1Mavericks Full timeout110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:51Seth Curry makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 77 – 79 MIN · DAL 18% → 26% +8DAL 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q34:31Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)DAL 77 – 82 MIN · MIN 74% → 82% +8MIN 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q411:25Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point shotDAL 94 – 98 MIN · DAL 13% → 21% +8DAL 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q49:04Kyle Anderson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DAL 96 – 105 MIN · MIN 86% → 92% +7MIN 86% → 92%+7 pts
- Q48:49Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)DAL 99 – 105 MIN · DAL 7% → 14% +7DAL 7% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 83%
- Fair odds
- MIN -377
- DAL +377 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.9 – 120.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −35 | +71 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +272 Elo | MIN 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 113.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 107.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 106.71st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 12–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.