Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints36
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints36
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game148–154
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime148–154
- OT0.1Pistons offensive team rebound148–154
- OT0.1Jaden Ivey misses 26-foot three point jumper148–154
- OT4.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2148–154
- OT4.1Jalen Duren enters the game for Killian Hayes148–153
- OT4.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2148–153
- OT4.1Killian Hayes personal take foul148–152
- OT7.0Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 1148–152
- OT7.0(00:07.1) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)148–151
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:15Walker Kessler makes 2-foot dunk (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 132 – 132 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 55% +25UTAH 30% → 55%+25 pts
- Q432.0Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointer (Collin Sexton assists)DET 132 – 135 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 94% +41UTAH 53% → 94%+41 pts
- Q415.0Bojan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three pointerDET 135 – 135 UTAH · DET 1% → 48% +47DET 1% → 48%+47 pts
- Q45.0Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)DET 135 – 138 UTAH · UTAH 51% → >99% +49UTAH 51% → >99%+49 pts
- Q40.0Alec Burks makes 29-foot three pointerDET 138 – 138 UTAH · DET 0% → 41% +41DET 0% → 41%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -9.5
- UTAH 83%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -326
- DET +326 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.9 – 121.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +41 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +271 Elo | UTAH 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 113.819th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 117.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.3 | Margin | −4.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 115.323rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.6 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–16 | Road vs home | 10–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.