Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Kelly OlynykAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–117
- Q411.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound109–117
- Q414.1Duncan Robinson misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot109–117
- Q417.1Heat Full timeout109–117
- Q417.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2109–117
- Q417.1Walker Kessler enters the game for Kelly Olynyk109–116
- Q417.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2109–116
- Q417.1Bam Adebayo personal foul109–115
- Q418.0Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Walker Kessler109–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q331.1Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 88 – 86 UTAH · MIA 51% → 63% +12MIA 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q49:24John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)MIA 92 – 93 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 50% +14UTAH 37% → 50%+14 pts
- Q47:39John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)MIA 96 – 96 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 46% +15UTAH 31% → 46%+15 pts
- Q45:42Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)MIA 99 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 70% +17UTAH 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q42:25Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Kelly Olynyk assists)MIA 106 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 87% +21UTAH 66% → 87%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 66%
- Fair odds
- MIA -148
- UTAH +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.2 – 113.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +97 | +29 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +117 Elo | MIA 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 113.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 119.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −5.825th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 116.724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.