Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints31
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds12
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–118
- Q40.0Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound130–118
- Q40.0Blake Wesley misses tip shot130–118
- Q41.1Blake Wesley offensive rebound130–118
- Q41.1Blake Wesley misses driving layup130–118
- Q411.1Spurs defensive team rebound130–118
- Q411.1Taylor Hendricks misses 23-foot three point jumper130–118
- Q434.1Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)130–118
- Q441.0Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound130–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:06Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)UTAH 88 – 83 SA · UTAH 63% → 73% +10UTAH 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32:53Keldon Johnson makes 24-foot three pointer (Blake Wesley assists)UTAH 88 – 86 SA · SA 27% → 37% +10SA 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q32:35Walker Kessler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 91 – 86 SA · UTAH 63% → 73% +10UTAH 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q31:39Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)UTAH 94 – 90 SA · UTAH 60% → 70% +11UTAH 60% → 70%+11 pts
- Q31:18Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 97 – 92 SA · UTAH 63% → 74% +10UTAH 63% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -3.5
- UTAH 64%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -156
- SA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 119.7 – 116.3 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −35 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +103 Elo | UTAH 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.0 | Points scored | 110.625th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 123.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.4 | Margin | −12.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 105.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 117.025th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 2–1229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.