Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints26
- Jordan ClarksonAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds12
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints26
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q42.1Jazz offensive team rebound105–112
- Q42.1Collin Sexton misses 29-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q44.1Larry Nance Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover105–112
- Q47.0Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound105–112
- Q411.1Jordan Clarkson misses 25-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q418.0Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Walker Kessler105–112
- Q418.0Herbert Jones enters the game for Trey Murphy III105–112
- Q418.0Jazz Full timeout105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:44Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 96 – 99 NO · UTAH 11% → 25% +14UTAH 11% → 25%+14 pts
- Q42:59Walker Kessler makes dunk (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 98 – 99 NO · UTAH 23% → 38% +14UTAH 23% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:35Brandon Ingram makes 30-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)UTAH 98 – 102 NO · NO 63% → 84% +21NO 63% → 84%+21 pts
- Q42:06Kris Dunn makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 100 – 102 NO · UTAH 14% → 28% +14UTAH 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q41:47Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)UTAH 100 – 105 NO · NO 73% → 92% +19NO 73% → 92%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 72%
- Fair odds
- NO -196
- UTAH +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.6 – 119.7 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +91 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +167 Elo | NO 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 113.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 111.411th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 9–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.