Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints19
- Luka DoncicAssists14
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds9
Jazz- Simone FontecchioPoints24
- Jordan ClarksonAssists11
- Jordan ClarksonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–127
- Q415.1Richaun Holmes defensive rebound90–127
- Q417.2Luka Samanic misses 5-foot hook shot90–127
- Q440.1Brandon Williams makes driving layup (Jaden Hardy assists)90–127
- Q451.0Luka Samanic makes 4-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)88–127
- Q41:03Jazz offensive team rebound88–125
- Q41:05Keyonte George misses 24-foot three point jumper88–125
- Q41:13Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound88–125
- Q41:16Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 10-foot two point shot88–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:35Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 58 – 65 UTAH · DAL 23% → 30% +7DAL 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q39:51Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 63 – 70 UTAH · DAL 22% → 30% +7DAL 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q37:06Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 70 – 77 UTAH · DAL 21% → 28% +8DAL 21% → 28%+8 pts
- Q36:18Jaden Hardy makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 73 – 79 UTAH · DAL 22% → 31% +8DAL 22% → 31%+8 pts
- Q34:51Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)DAL 75 – 84 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 78% +8UTAH 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -101
- UTAH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.6 – 119.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +27 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +15 Elo | DAL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 118.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −5.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 116.324th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 9–513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.