Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Alec BurksPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–136
- Q416.2Cam Whitmore defensive rebound113–136
- Q417.1Killian Hayes misses 22-foot three point jumper113–136
- Q422.0shot clock turnover113–136
- Q446.0Kevin Knox II makes 24-foot three point shot (Marvin Bagley III assists)113–136
- Q452.1Reggie Bullock Jr. bad pass (Marvin Bagley III steals)110–136
- Q41:03Boban Marjanovic defensive rebound110–136
- Q41:04Ausar Thompson misses driving floating jump shot110–136
- Q41:12Kevin Knox II defensive rebound110–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:23Tari Eason makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)DET 24 – 29 HOU · HOU 76% → 81% +5HOU 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q120.0Killian Hayes makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDET 29 – 31 HOU · DET 19% → 24% +5DET 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q311:51Jalen Green makes 24-foot three pointerDET 55 – 62 HOU · HOU 78% → 84% +6HOU 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q311:37Bojan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 58 – 62 HOU · DET 16% → 22% +6DET 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q39:18Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)DET 62 – 69 HOU · HOU 78% → 84% +6HOU 78% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Fair odds
- HOU -296
- DET +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.9 – 118.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1338 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | +34 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +268 Elo | HOU 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 112.324th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 109.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.9 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 111.719th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 109.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–15 | Road vs home | 12–510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.