Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints42
- Tobias HarrisAssists7
- Marcus Morris Sr.Rebounds5
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints33
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Tari EasonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–127
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound131–127
- Q40.0Aaron Holiday misses 42-foot three point pullup jump shot131–127
- Q41.1Marcus Morris Sr. makes free throw 2 of 2131–127
- Q41.176ers offensive team rebound130–127
- Q41.1Marcus Morris Sr. misses free throw 1 of 2130–127
- Q41.1Jock Landale personal take foul130–127
- Q41.1Marcus Morris Sr. defensive rebound130–127
- Q43.1Marcus Morris Sr. blocks Jock Landale 's 4-foot layup130–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:39Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointer (Alperen Sengun assists)PHI 116 – 118 HOU · HOU 41% → 67% +26HOU 41% → 67%+26 pts
- Q41:50Patrick Beverley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 121 – 120 HOU · PHI 30% → 61% +31PHI 30% → 61%+31 pts
- Q41:31Tari Eason makes 3-foot two point shotPHI 121 – 122 HOU · HOU 38% → 61% +23HOU 38% → 61%+23 pts
- Q41:12De'Anthony Melton makes driving layup (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 123 – 122 HOU · PHI 37% → 63% +26PHI 37% → 63%+26 pts
- Q431.1Marcus Morris Sr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 126 – 122 HOU · PHI 69% → 98% +28PHI 69% → 98%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.0 – 112.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +34 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.6 | Points scored | 111.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.0 | Margin | +2.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 108.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–5 | Road vs home | 12–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.