Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Dario SaricRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–127
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)130–127
- Q40.1Nikola Jokic makes 39-foot three pointer130–127
- Q43.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Chris Paul127–127
- Q43.1Kevon Looney enters the game for Dario Saric127–127
- Q43.1Nuggets Full timeout127–127
- Q44.1Stephen Curry bad pass (Jamal Murray steals)127–127
- Q426.0Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot step back jumpshot127–127
- Q447.1Peyton Watson defensive rebound125–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:36Brandin Podziemski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)DEN 88 – 91 GS · GS 46% → 56% +11GS 46% → 56%+11 pts
- Q41:52Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 123 – 127 GS · DEN 3% → 15% +12DEN 3% → 15%+12 pts
- Q41:08Aaron Gordon makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 125 – 127 GS · DEN 9% → 26% +17DEN 9% → 26%+17 pts
- Q426.0Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot step back jumpshotDEN 127 – 127 GS · DEN 14% → 51% +37DEN 14% → 51%+37 pts
- Q40.1Nikola Jokic makes 39-foot three pointerDEN 130 – 127 GS · DEN 50% → 100% +50DEN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -134
- GS +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.0 – 114.8 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +109 | +31 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +52 Elo | DEN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 116.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +0.617th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 114.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.9 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.