Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists11
- Moritz WagnerRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Aaron GordonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–120
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound122–120
- Q40.0Jamal Murray misses 10-foot two point shot122–120
- Q49.1Nuggets Full timeout122–120
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2122–120
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2121–120
- Q49.1Nikola Jokic shooting foul120–120
- Q413.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope bad pass (Moritz Wagner steals)120–120
- Q434.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2120–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:46Cole Anthony makes 1-foot two point shot (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 118 – 114 DEN · ORL 67% → 84% +17ORL 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q41:39Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)ORL 118 – 116 DEN · DEN 15% → 32% +17DEN 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q41:08Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)ORL 118 – 118 DEN · DEN 27% → 53% +26DEN 27% → 53%+26 pts
- Q434.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 120 – 120 DEN · ORL 30% → 48% +18ORL 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q49.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2ORL 121 – 120 DEN · ORL 49% → 82% +33ORL 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 71%
- Fair odds
- DEN -231
- ORL +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.1 – 115.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | +129 | ORL: Missing Goga Bitadze −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +155 Elo | DEN 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 115.612th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 116.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 14–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−18 Elo- Goga Bitadze illness−12 Elo
Nuggets
+129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.