Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints43
- Trevelin QueenAssists6
- Chuma OkekeRebounds7
Kings- Malik MonkPoints37
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds23
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game135–138
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime135–138
- 2OT0.1Keegan Murray defensive rebound135–138
- 2OT2.0Paolo Banchero misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot135–138
- 2OT4.0Moritz Wagner enters the game for Trevelin Queen135–138
- 2OT4.0Caleb Houstan enters the game for Goga Bitadze135–138
- 2OT4.0Juan Toscano-Anderson enters the game for Domantas Sabonis135–138
- 2OT4.0Trey Lyles enters the game for Malik Monk135–138
- 2OT4.0Magic Full timeout135–138
- 2OT13.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2135–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q415.2Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerORL 118 – 116 SAC · ORL 23% → 92% +69ORL 23% → 92%+69 pts
- Q410.0Malik Monk makes driving layupORL 118 – 118 SAC · SAC 4% → 51% +47SAC 4% → 51%+47 pts
- OT33.1Malik Monk makes driving layupORL 123 – 124 SAC · SAC 33% → 70% +37SAC 33% → 70%+37 pts
- OT17.1Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot dunk (Malik Monk assists)ORL 125 – 126 SAC · SAC 26% → 76% +50SAC 26% → 76%+50 pts
- OT1.0Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot layup (Chuma Okeke assists)ORL 127 – 127 SAC · ORL <1% → 50% +50ORL <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- SAC 60%
- Fair odds
- SAC -167
- ORL +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.1 – 115.9 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | +56 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +68 Elo | SAC 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 117.19th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 114.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.