Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints43
- Domantas SabonisAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints29
- Scoot HendersonAssists11
- Moses BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–130
- Q44.0shot clock turnover113–130
- Q427.0Ish Wainright defensive rebound113–130
- Q429.2Davion Mitchell misses 26-foot step back jumpshot113–130
- Q436.1Davion Mitchell defensive rebound113–130
- Q439.1Ish Wainright misses 31-foot three point jumper113–130
- Q453.1Davion Mitchell makes two point shot113–130
- Q41:06Toumani Camara lost ball turnover (Juan Toscano-Anderson steals)111–130
- Q41:22shot clock turnover111–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:30Keegan Murray makes 24-foot three point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 74 – 81 POR · SAC 26% → 35% +9SAC 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q35:34De'Aaron Fox makes 30-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 78 – 83 POR · SAC 31% → 41% +10SAC 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q35:14Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)SAC 78 – 86 POR · POR 59% → 69% +10POR 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q32:18De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 89 – 96 POR · SAC 22% → 31% +9SAC 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q31:53Jabari Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)SAC 89 – 99 POR · POR 69% → 78% +9POR 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4.5
- SAC 67%
- Fair odds
- SAC -171
- POR +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.9 – 112.8 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +71 | +9 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +120 Elo | SAC 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 108.029th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 114.717th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −6.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 106.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 3–1026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.