Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints34
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints30
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–104
- Q414.0De'Aaron Fox out of bounds lost ball turnover111–104
- Q421.1Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2111–104
- Q421.1Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2110–104
- Q421.1Keegan Murray personal take foul109–104
- Q422.1Nick Richards defensive rebound109–104
- Q425.0De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–104
- Q432.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2109–104
- Q432.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:15De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)CHA 98 – 102 SAC · SAC 75% → 88% +13SAC 75% → 88%+13 pts
- Q41:49Terry Rozier makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (P.J. Washington assists)CHA 101 – 102 SAC · CHA 11% → 33% +22CHA 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q41:34De'Aaron Fox makes driving layupCHA 101 – 104 SAC · SAC 68% → 85% +17SAC 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q451.1P.J. Washington makes 2-foot dunk (Cody Martin assists)CHA 105 – 104 SAC · CHA 30% → 61% +30CHA 30% → 61%+30 pts
- Q442.0Cody Martin makes two point shot (Nick Richards assists)CHA 107 – 104 SAC · CHA 63% → 88% +26CHA 63% → 88%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -12
- SAC 87%
- Fair odds
- SAC -470
- CHA +470 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.9 – 122.6 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +65 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +334 Elo | SAC 87.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 25th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 116.821st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 114.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 11–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.