Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints27
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds21
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points18
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–92
- Q419.1Juan Toscano-Anderson defensive rebound123–92
- Q422.1Xavier Tillman misses 27-foot three point jumper123–92
- Q439.1Ziaire Williams defensive rebound123–92
- Q442.1Sasha Vezenkov misses driving floating jump shot123–92
- Q455.0JaVale McGee defensive rebound123–92
- Q458.0Ziaire Williams misses 17-foot pullup jump shot123–92
- Q41:12JaVale McGee out of bounds bad pass turnover123–92
- Q41:22Sasha Vezenkov defensive rebound123–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:52Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)SAC 12 – 17 MEM · MEM 42% → 49% +7MEM 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q15:05Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 17 – 19 MEM · SAC 51% → 58% +7SAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q13:53Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)SAC 19 – 22 MEM · MEM 38% → 45% +7MEM 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q11:35Trey Lyles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 26 – 26 MEM · SAC 55% → 62% +7SAC 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q150.0Trey Lyles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 32 – 29 MEM · SAC 61% → 68% +7SAC 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3.5
- SAC 64%
- Fair odds
- SAC -170
- MEM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.9 – 111.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +6 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +99 Elo | SAC 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 107.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 113.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 111.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 2–1128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.