Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points22
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints23
- James HardenAssists13
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–117
- Q42.1shot clock turnover106–117
- Q428.1Norman Powell defensive rebound106–117
- Q432.1Marcus Smart misses 26-foot three point jumper106–117
- Q438.0Santi Aldama defensive rebound106–117
- Q440.1Terance Mann misses free throw 2 of 2106–117
- Q440.1Terance Mann makes free throw 1 of 2106–117
- Q440.1Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foul106–116
- Q446.1Amir Coffey defensive rebound106–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 8 – 2 LAC · MEM 35% → 41% +6MEM 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q19:59Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)MEM 8 – 5 LAC · LAC 59% → 65% +6LAC 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q17:47James Harden makes 28-foot step back jumpshotMEM 12 – 12 LAC · LAC 64% → 70% +6LAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q22:31Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 49 – 49 LAC · MEM 27% → 34% +7MEM 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q252.2Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 54 – 55 LAC · MEM 24% → 32% +7MEM 24% → 32%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 77%
- Fair odds
- LAC -248
- MEM +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.7 – 115.6 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +37 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +208 Elo | LAC 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 116.610th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 112.49th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.2 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 15th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 12–46th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.