Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q46.1Jalen Johnson bad pass (De'Aaron Fox steals)117–110
- Q47.1Jalen Johnson offensive rebound117–110
- Q412.2Trae Young misses 23-foot three point shot117–110
- Q416.1Hawks Full timeout117–110
- Q417.0Clint Capela defensive rebound117–110
- Q418.1De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q418.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2117–110
- Q418.1Dejounte Murray personal foul116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:18De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 103 – 105 ATL · SAC 23% → 38% +15SAC 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q45:48De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 106 – 105 ATL · SAC 38% → 55% +18SAC 38% → 55%+18 pts
- Q44:45Trae Young makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 108 – 109 ATL · ATL 44% → 57% +13ATL 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q44:32Malik Monk makes driving layupSAC 110 – 110 ATL · SAC 36% → 49% +13SAC 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q43:27Chris Duarte makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 113 – 110 ATL · SAC 49% → 72% +22SAC 49% → 72%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- SAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 123.1 – 123.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +66 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | SAC crossed 3 time zones and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 122.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 122.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 117.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 4–824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.