Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints22
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints25
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds25
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–118
- Q41.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound113–118
- Q41.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 21-foot two point shot113–118
- Q45.0Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Saddiq Bey113–118
- Q45.0Hawks Full timeout113–118
- Q45.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2113–118
- Q45.0Bulls offensive team rebound113–117
- Q45.0Ayo Dosunmu misses free throw 1 of 2113–117
- Q45.0Trae Young personal take foul113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:11Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 97 – 97 CHI · ATL 33% → 48% +15ATL 33% → 48%+15 pts
- Q43:57Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)ATL 106 – 109 CHI · CHI 52% → 72% +20CHI 52% → 72%+20 pts
- Q42:50DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)ATL 108 – 111 CHI · CHI 60% → 75% +15CHI 60% → 75%+15 pts
- Q42:01Dejounte Murray makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotATL 110 – 111 CHI · ATL 21% → 39% +17ATL 21% → 39%+17 pts
- Q41:42DeMar DeRozan makes 20-foot pullup jump shotATL 110 – 113 CHI · CHI 62% → 80% +19CHI 62% → 80%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 57%
- Fair odds
- CHI -125
- ATL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.9 – 119.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | +48 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +49 Elo | CHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 110.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 112.411th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 9–821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.