Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints17
- Lauri MarkkanenAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds11
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–126
- Q42.1shot clock turnover97–126
- Q427.2Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound97–126
- Q427.2Omer Yurtseven misses free throw 2 of 297–126
- Q427.2Jazz offensive team rebound97–126
- Q427.2Omer Yurtseven misses free throw 1 of 297–126
- Q427.2Dalano Banton shooting foul97–126
- Q427.2Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound97–126
- Q428.1Talen Horton-Tucker misses driving layup97–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:04Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)UTAH 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 76% → 80% +5BOS 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q110:34Kristaps Porzingis makes 5-foot layup (Jayson Tatum assists)UTAH 0 – 6 BOS · BOS 80% → 83% +3BOS 80% → 83%+3 pts
- Q17:28Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)UTAH 6 – 15 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q16:05Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)UTAH 8 – 18 BOS · BOS 84% → 88% +4BOS 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q10.1Jrue Holiday makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)UTAH 15 – 30 BOS · BOS 90% → 93% +3BOS 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Fair odds
- BOS -287
- UTAH +287 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.8 – 122.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1660 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +109 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | UTAH crossed 2 time zones and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +269 Elo | BOS 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 120.85th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 110.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.9 | Margin | +10.12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 109.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–14 | Road vs home | 16–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.