Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints34
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–127
- Q40.1Celtics offensive team rebound123–127
- Q40.1Jaylen Brown misses 22-foot three point shot123–127
- Q42.1Celtics Full timeout123–127
- Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2123–127
- Q42.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Josh Giddey123–126
- Q42.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2123–126
- Q42.1Jaylen Brown personal foul123–125
- Q43.1Thunder Full timeout123–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:20Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)BOS 61 – 64 OKC · OKC 51% → 60% +9OKC 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q37:58Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 68 – 70 OKC · BOS 33% → 42% +9BOS 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:31Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)BOS 72 – 79 OKC · OKC 64% → 73% +9OKC 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q441.0Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 119 – 121 OKC · BOS 1% → 19% +18BOS 1% → 19%+18 pts
- Q426.0Jalen Williams makes 4-foot pullup jump shotBOS 119 – 123 OKC · OKC 86% → 99% +12OKC 86% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- OKC 48%
- Fair odds
- OKC -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.4 – 118.9 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1667 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +98 | +117 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 121.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.5 | Margin | +8.53rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 117.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 109.66th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 13–59th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.