Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints22
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds16
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–124
- Q41.0shot clock turnover108–124
- Q426.1Trendon Watford makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Cam Thomas assists)108–124
- Q436.1Nets defensive team rebound106–124
- Q439.1Cason Wallace misses 25-foot three point jumper106–124
- Q457.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound106–124
- Q457.1Jaylin Williams blocks Cam Thomas 's 4-foot jumper106–124
- Q458.1Cam Thomas offensive rebound106–124
- Q41:01Cam Thomas misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot106–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:45Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)BKN 44 – 39 OKC · BKN 35% → 42% +7BKN 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q236.1Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)BKN 54 – 57 OKC · OKC 67% → 75% +7OKC 67% → 75%+7 pts
- Q310:06Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 61 – 61 OKC · BKN 26% → 34% +8BKN 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q39:11Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)BKN 61 – 64 OKC · OKC 66% → 74% +8OKC 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q38:30Luguentz Dort makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)BKN 63 – 67 OKC · OKC 69% → 77% +8OKC 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Fair odds
- OKC -277
- BKN +277 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 114.1 – 121.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +123 | BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +247 Elo | OKC 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 121.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 112.911th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +8.33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 109.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 12–59th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+25 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV left hamstring strain−6 Elo
Thunder
+123 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.