Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Khris MiddletonAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Nets- Jalen WilsonPoints21
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists8
- Jalen WilsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–122
- Q48.0AJ Green defensive rebound144–122
- Q410.1Jalen Wilson misses 14-foot pullup jump shot144–122
- Q432.0Chris Livingston makes layup (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)144–122
- Q443.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2142–122
- Q443.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2142–121
- Q443.1Cameron Payne personal foul142–120
- Q450.0AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)142–120
- Q459.2Chris Livingston defensive rebound139–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:21Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dariq Whitehead assists)MIL 78 – 79 BKN · BKN 33% → 43% +10BKN 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q35:03Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 81 – 79 BKN · MIL 57% → 67% +10MIL 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q31:26MarJon Beauchamp makes 24-foot three pointer (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 94 – 90 BKN · MIL 63% → 74% +10MIL 63% → 74%+10 pts
- Q353.0Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)MIL 97 – 90 BKN · MIL 74% → 83% +9MIL 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q315.1Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 100 – 92 BKN · MIL 77% → 85% +8MIL 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 72%
- Fair odds
- MIL -209
- BKN +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 124.0 – 118.4 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +115 | +40 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +163 Elo | MIL 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.5 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 115.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 114.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 9–717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+115 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.