Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints19
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints26
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–110
- Q424.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound104–110
- Q424.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses 28-foot step back jumpshot104–110
- Q426.0Nic Claxton offensive rebound104–110
- Q429.1Mikal Bridges misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot104–110
- Q437.1Cameron Johnson defensive rebound104–110
- Q439.2Landry Shamet misses 27-foot three point jumper104–110
- Q459.1Nic Claxton makes free throw 2 of 2104–110
- Q459.1Nic Claxton makes free throw 1 of 2103–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:30Mike Muscala makes 27-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)BKN 86 – 87 WSH · WSH 37% → 50% +13WSH 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q49:37Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 89 – 89 WSH · BKN 40% → 54% +14BKN 40% → 54%+14 pts
- Q48:12Corey Kispert makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBKN 91 – 94 WSH · WSH 46% → 61% +15WSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q45:01Landry Shamet makes two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)BKN 97 – 100 WSH · WSH 53% → 66% +12WSH 53% → 66%+12 pts
- Q43:23Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 101 – 108 WSH · WSH 77% → 91% +14WSH 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- BKN 63%
- Fair odds
- BKN -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 122.2 – 119.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −27 | BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +93 Elo | BKN 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 116.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 126.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −10.227th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 110.325th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 120.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 2–1027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+27 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV left hamstring strain−6 Elo
Wizards
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.