Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds9
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Blake WesleyAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–101
- Q46.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound134–101
- Q411.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 25-foot three point jumper134–101
- Q414.2Dominick Barlow offensive rebound134–101
- Q416.1Sidy Cissoko misses 25-foot three point jumper134–101
- Q426.1shot clock turnover134–101
- Q447.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound134–101
- Q449.1Blake Wesley misses driving layup134–101
- Q455.2Oshae Brissett makes layup (Dalano Banton assists)134–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 3 – 0 SA · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q19:29Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jeremy Sochan assists)BOS 5 – 5 SA · SA 15% → 19% +4SA 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q19:06Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 8 – 5 SA · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q17:22Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)BOS 13 – 12 SA · SA 14% → 18% +4SA 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q24:20Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 53 – 44 SA · BOS 86% → 90% +4BOS 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14
- BOS 90%
- Fair odds
- BOS -437
- SA +437 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 124.4 – 113.2 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1664 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +104 | −9 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +391 Elo | BOS 90.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 111.725th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 123.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.8 | Margin | −11.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 106.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 117.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.5 | Pace | 104.33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 2–1329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.