San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Devin VassellAssists7
- Jeremy SochanRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints29
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Jerami GrantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–105
- Q412.1Malaki Branham defensive rebound118–105
- Q412.1Ish Wainright misses 26-foot three point jumper118–105
- Q413.0Ibou Badji offensive rebound118–105
- Q415.0Jabari Walker misses driving floating jump shot118–105
- Q427.2Skylar Mays defensive rebound118–105
- Q431.0Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 26-foot three point jumper118–105
- Q452.1Scoot Henderson makes 20-foot pullup jump shot118–105
- Q41:02Doug McDermott enters the game for Victor Wembanyama118–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:49Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 16 – 4 POR · SA 56% → 62% +6SA 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q38:15Malcolm Brogdon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)SA 69 – 59 POR · POR 21% → 29% +8POR 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:17Malaki Branham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 72 – 61 POR · SA 67% → 76% +9SA 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q34:41Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2SA 72 – 65 POR · POR 22% → 34% +12POR 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q34:27Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 75 – 65 POR · SA 66% → 75% +9SA 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 70%
- Fair odds
- POR -178
- SA +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.6 – 117.0 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −8 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −20, Duop Reath −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +144 Elo | POR 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 108.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 114.718th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.3 | Margin | −5.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 107.427th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 113.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 4–1025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−8 Elo- Anfernee Simons illness−20 Elo
- Duop Reath lower back soreness−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.