San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints29
- Keldon JohnsonAssists7
- Tre JonesRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints27
- Scoot HendersonAssists11
- Toumani CamaraRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–134
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound128–134
- Q40.0Julian Champagnie misses 24-foot three point jumper128–134
- Q46.0Scoot Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2128–134
- Q46.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound128–133
- Q46.0Scoot Henderson misses free throw 1 of 2128–133
- Q46.0Keldon Johnson personal take foul128–133
- Q47.0Julian Champagnie makes free throw 2 of 2128–133
- Q47.0Julian Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 2127–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:05Malcolm Brogdon makes 26-foot three pointer (Jerami Grant assists)SA 22 – 22 POR · POR 54% → 61% +7POR 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q138.1Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 27 – 25 POR · SA 37% → 44% +7SA 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q211:02Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)SA 31 – 32 POR · POR 56% → 63% +7POR 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q210:54Doug McDermott makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 34 – 32 POR · SA 37% → 44% +7SA 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q27:48Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)SA 40 – 42 POR · POR 58% → 65% +7POR 58% → 65%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -4
- POR 65%
- Fair odds
- POR -167
- SA +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.6 – 116.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −42 | −10 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +109 Elo | POR 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 108.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 114.818th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.5 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 113.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.3 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 4–1125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.