Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Collin SextonAssists10
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints25
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Paul ReedRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–109
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound120–109
- Q40.0Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point jumper120–109
- Q46.2shot clock turnover120–109
- Q430.2KJ Martin makes dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)120–109
- Q437.1Collin Sexton makes 27-foot step back jumpshot120–107
- Q458.1Tyrese Maxey makes layup (KJ Martin assists)117–107
- Q41:01Kris Dunn enters the game for John Collins117–105
- Q41:0176ers Full timeout117–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:36Patrick Beverley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)UTAH 56 – 57 PHI · PHI 46% → 54% +9PHI 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q39:01Lauri Markkanen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 68 – 63 PHI · UTAH 55% → 64% +9UTAH 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q35:31Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 75 – 67 PHI · UTAH 66% → 75% +9UTAH 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q33:38Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 80 – 71 PHI · UTAH 70% → 79% +9UTAH 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q349.1Kelly Olynyk makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)UTAH 85 – 77 PHI · UTAH 68% → 78% +10UTAH 68% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -108
- UTAH +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.7 – 117.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −21 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −104, Robert Covington −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 119.86th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 111.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | +8.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 117.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 109.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–15 | Road vs home | 13–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−21 Elo- Joel Embiid left knee swelling−104 Elo
- Robert Covington illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.