New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Josh HartAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds15
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–92
- Q415.1Malachi Flynn defensive rebound128–92
- Q419.1Jaden Springer misses 27-foot step back jumpshot128–92
- Q431.0Precious Achiuwa bad pass (Mo Bamba steals)128–92
- Q432.1Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound128–92
- Q435.1Precious Achiuwa misses 23-foot three point jumper128–92
- Q441.1Ryan Arcidiacono defensive rebound128–92
- Q443.1Paul Reed misses 1-foot two point shot128–92
- Q41:03Precious Achiuwa makes 6-foot two point shot (Miles McBride assists)128–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q126.2Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point shot (Julius Randle assists)NY 32 – 28 PHI · NY 32% → 41% +9NY 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q28:51Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Quentin Grimes assists)NY 45 – 38 PHI · NY 42% → 50% +7NY 42% → 50%+7 pts
- Q27:53Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 48 – 41 PHI · PHI 42% → 50% +8PHI 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q27:37Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three pointerNY 51 – 41 PHI · NY 50% → 58% +8NY 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q26:02Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 54 – 43 PHI · NY 54% → 62% +8NY 54% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6.5
- PHI 73%
- Fair odds
- PHI -241
- NY +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.7 – 119.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +127 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +176 Elo | PHI 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 120.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.55th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +10.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 118.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 108.72nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 13–47th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+127 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.