Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Mike ConleyAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists14
- Josh HartRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–112
- Q41.1Julius Randle defensive rebound106–112
- Q41.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses 26-foot three point jumper106–112
- Q43.0Timberwolves Full timeout106–112
- Q43.0Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound106–112
- Q43.1Julius Randle misses free throw 2 of 2106–112
- Q43.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2106–112
- Q43.1Anthony Edwards personal take foul106–111
- Q45.1Anthony Edwards makes driving layup106–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:22Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIN 39 – 45 NY · NY 52% → 59% +8NY 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q21:40Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 48 – 55 NY · MIN 28% → 36% +8MIN 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q48:44OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIN 88 – 97 NY · NY 74% → 84% +10NY 74% → 84%+10 pts
- Q46:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 95 – 99 NY · MIN 18% → 31% +13MIN 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q45:09Julius Randle makes 7-foot two point shotMIN 95 – 101 NY · NY 72% → 81% +10NY 72% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -137
- NY +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.8 – 111.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | +5 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.3 | Points scored | 115.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 113.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +1.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 8–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.