Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints33
- Anthony DavisAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds17
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q41.1Austin Reaves enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt106–108
- Q41.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Mike Conley106–108
- Q41.1Lakers Full timeout106–108
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2106–108
- Q41.1Christian Wood enters the game for Cam Reddish106–107
- Q41.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns106–107
- Q41.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound106–107
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:39Christian Wood makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 87 – 87 MIN · LAL 29% → 43% +14LAL 29% → 43%+14 pts
- Q45:29Christian Wood makes 24-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 90 – 91 MIN · LAL 22% → 38% +16LAL 22% → 38%+16 pts
- Q45:12Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)LAL 90 – 94 MIN · MIN 62% → 78% +16MIN 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q43:40Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)LAL 93 – 97 MIN · MIN 62% → 81% +19MIN 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q43:00Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)LAL 95 – 100 MIN · MIN 70% → 87% +18MIN 70% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4.5
- MIN 67%
- Fair odds
- MIN -196
- LAL +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.7 – 114.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +72 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +120 Elo | MIN 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 107.41st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 106.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–11 | Road vs home | 13–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.