New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints38
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds12
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists23
- Myles TurnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–140
- Q418.0Charlie Brown Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jacob Toppin assists)126–140
- Q428.2Obi Toppin enters the game for Isaiah Jackson123–140
- Q428.2Knicks defensive team rebound123–140
- Q433.1T.J. McConnell misses 15-foot pullup jump shot123–140
- Q450.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound123–140
- Q454.1Charlie Brown Jr. misses 9-foot two point shot123–140
- Q41:05Ryan Arcidiacono enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo123–140
- Q41:05Charlie Brown Jr. enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein123–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:45Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 67 – 64 IND · NY 44% → 53% +9NY 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q310:31Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 67 – 67 IND · IND 47% → 56% +9IND 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q310:17Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 67 – 70 IND · IND 56% → 65% +9IND 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q36:12Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 78 – 81 IND · NY 26% → 35% +9NY 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q35:58Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 78 – 84 IND · IND 65% → 74% +9IND 65% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 54%
- Fair odds
- IND -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.6 – 124.2 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | +67 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +27 Elo | IND 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 125.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 124.729th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 119.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 118.227th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 105.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 8–717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.