Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists20
- Obi ToppinRebounds12
Bulls- Patrick WilliamsPoints22
- DeMar DeRozanAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–104
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound120–104
- Q40.0Terry Taylor misses 23-foot three point jumper120–104
- Q46.2shot clock turnover120–104
- Q427.1Obi Toppin defensive rebound120–104
- Q431.1Ayo Dosunmu misses free throw 2 of 2120–104
- Q431.1Obi Toppin enters the game for Myles Turner120–104
- Q431.1Andrew Nembhard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton120–104
- Q431.1Adama Sanogo enters the game for Patrick Williams120–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:57Patrick Williams makes driving layup (Jevon Carter assists)IND 90 – 87 CHI · CHI 30% → 38% +9CHI 30% → 38%+9 pts
- Q48:18Coby White makes 32-foot three pointerIND 90 – 91 CHI · CHI 43% → 58% +15CHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q47:22Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 93 – 93 CHI · IND 32% → 48% +15IND 32% → 48%+15 pts
- Q46:44Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerIND 96 – 93 CHI · IND 48% → 64% +16IND 48% → 64%+16 pts
- Q46:24Tyrese Haliburton makes 23-foot three point shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 99 – 93 CHI · IND 64% → 79% +14IND 64% → 79%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 59%
- Fair odds
- CHI -128
- IND +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.3 – 121.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +52 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +65 Elo | CHI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.8 | Points scored | 110.226th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.4 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 111.619th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.