Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists13
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–116
- Q418.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound100–116
- Q421.2Dalen Terry misses 11-foot two point shot100–116
- Q432.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound100–116
- Q434.2Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point jumper100–116
- Q448.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound100–116
- Q450.1Jevon Carter misses 13-foot pullup jump shot100–116
- Q456.0Julian Phillips offensive rebound100–116
- Q458.0Julian Phillips misses driving floating jump shot100–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:28Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)CHI 55 – 54 NY · NY 47% → 56% +9NY 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q310:43OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)CHI 57 – 57 NY · NY 50% → 59% +9NY 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q410:25Coby White makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 86 – 88 NY · CHI 24% → 35% +12CHI 24% → 35%+12 pts
- Q49:09DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three pointer (Jevon Carter assists)CHI 89 – 90 NY · CHI 27% → 40% +13CHI 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q48:52Julius Randle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CHI 89 – 93 NY · NY 60% → 73% +13NY 60% → 73%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -168
- CHI +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.1 – 114.0 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | +6 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +112 Elo | NY 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 115.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.5 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–11 | Road vs home | 9–411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.